Latest poll: John Cornyn vulnerable, MJ Hegar leading Democratic field

by | Feb 17, 2020 | 2020 Elections, Politics

A newly-released University of Texas-Texas Tribune poll shows Sen. John Cornyn’s job performance is underwater with voters in the Lone Star State, and a scrambled field for the Democratic nomination to challenge him. 

Just 36 percent of voters approve of Cornyn’s job performance, while 39 percent disapprove. A quarter of those surveyed could not or would not rate him.

The same poll also shows that former Air Force helicopter pilot MJ Hegar has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the primary race. The poll shows Hegar with 22 percent of support from self-identified Democratic primary voters in Texas. Hegar holds a double-digit lead over the next closest candidate, Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, who garners 9 percent of support. 

This week’s poll is obviously good news for Hegar, who has created real separation from the rest of the field, likely by raising the most money in the race and being the only candidate to invest in TV ad buys. In addition, Hegar has benefitted from a $3.3 million ad buy from VoteVets to boost her candidacy.

Nonetheless, while her lead likely assures a runoff spot in the race, it by no means guarantees the nomination. At 22 percent, Hegar is well short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff, and with early voting set to begin this week and a dozen candidates on the ballot, it’s an open question which two Democrats, most likely including Hegar, will head to a runoff in late May. It’s difficult to determine who is likely to claim that second runoff spot since, besides Hegar, all other candidates are polling between 1 to 3 percentage points away from each other, within the margin of error.

Despite the race finally producing a frontrunner, all candidates continue to suffer from name recognition problems. The same UT-Texas Tribune polling shows only a third of Texans have heard of Hegar, with even less name recognition for the other candidates vying for second place. Likewise, 56 percent of Democrats in the poll did not express a preference when asked how they would vote.

Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

fernando@texassignal.com | + posts

Fernando covers Texas politics and government at the Texas Signal. Before joining the Signal, Fernando spent two years at the Houston Chronicle and previously interned at Houston’s NPR station News 88.7. He is a graduate of the University of Houston, Jack J. Valenti School of Communication, and enjoys reading, highlighting things, and arguing on social media. You can follow him on Twitter at @fernramirez93 or email at fernando@texassignal.com

Are you tired of Texas Republicans pushing big lies and trying to steal your vote? So are we, that’s why we’re fighting back against the right-wing lie machine. Our commitment to ethical, fact-based journalism is vital to our democracy, and we can’t do it without you. Consider donating today to help us stay in this fight.

Continue Reading

Why Trump wants a bill to audit Texas elections

Why Trump wants a bill to audit Texas elections

Donald Trump recently penned a letter to Gov. Greg Abbott calling on him to audit the results of the 2020 election. The governor quickly obeyed and is now auditing the results in four major counties.  But the former president (or whoever was plainly ghostwriting...

Federal regulators urge tougher rules for Texas power grid

Federal regulators urge tougher rules for Texas power grid

Federal officials released more than two dozen recommendations on Wednesday aimed at preventing the Texas electrical grid from failing again as it did in February. The blackouts, which were the result of freezing temperatures wrought by Winter Storm Uri, left millions...