New poll shows Trump’s Texas-sized trouble growing

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A new poll commissioned by the Democratic Policy Institute brings fresh data that shows President Donald Trump is in deep water in the Lone Star State. The survey found Trump’s favorability in the once reliably Republican state is equal to his unfavorability, at 49% each, and that he’s neck-and-neck with the two Democratic candidates in hypothetical general election matchups.

While it may be surprising to some that Trump has retained a 49% favorability rating in the state, the more troubling news for the president is that the vast majority of those voters view him very unfavorably as his impeachment woes continue.

When it comes to 2020 matchups, the poll only matched Trump against former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. In the showdown with Biden, who openly campaigns on his ability to beat Trump, Trump leads by just a single point, 45-44. 

When you throw Warren into the mix, Trump leads by 5, still a tight race especially when you consider the margin of error for the poll is 3%.

The difference in support between Biden and Warren isn’t driven by Democrats but by independents and Republicans. In his head-to-head with Trump, Biden captures 36% of independents and a surprisingly 11% of Republicans. Warren secures 34% of the independent vote and 8% of Republicans. 

One finding was odd: Biden actually captures a higher percentage of the Democratic vote in these polls than Warren. Biden enjoys the support of 80% of Democratic respondents, compared to just 77% for Warren. That phantom 3 points is lost to a category combining responses that included those who weren’t sure, wouldn’t vote, or refused to answer.

That result flies in the face of conventional thinking—that is Democratic primary electorate is growing more progressive. Without seeing the cross-tabs we can’t say exactly why Warren is underperforming Biden among Democrats, but it seems out of step with what we’d expect.

this poll didn’t take a look at the quest for the Democratic nomination, a new Morning Consult poll shows Biden dipping below 30% nationally for the first time since he entered the race. Biden’s support has dropped 11 points from his high watermark in May. He leads with 29%, followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 20%, Warren at 15%, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%. 

Elsewhere in the poll, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has already reached 5%, tying him with Kamala Harris —who ended her campaign on Tuesday—for 5th place and just ahead of Andrew Yang. Bloomberg’s support comes largely from high income and more conservative voters, which could signal that the Texas suburbs will be fruitful terrain for him.

In what could be a huge warning sign for his Texas prospects, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s difficulty with black voters continues. While Biden has a +40 favorability rating among black voters, Buttigieg’s favorability is only +16, signaling continued skepticism from that key constituency. 

Photo: Corey Sipkin/AFP/Getty Images

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