As the dust continues to settle across the country, the only thing we know for sure is that this could take a minute, but we’re on track for definitive results in several key swing states with good news on the horizon for Joe Biden.
While the results here in Texas were not what we had hoped, and what many had projected, Texas Democrats made significant gains, netting more votes than any time in history at the top of the ticket. Votes are still being counted in a slew of down ballot races. We’ll have more updates and analysis for you later today and throughout the week.
What We’re Watching
Just like you, we’ve got our eyes glued to the final remaining returns. The Presidential race has come down to a battle for a collection of rust belt states along with Nevada and Arizona in the west.
Joe Biden currently leads in Wisconsin, a state his campaign is expecting to be called for Biden sometime today. Similarly, Biden has etched out a lead in neighboring Michigan, both states Trump carried in 2016, and his campaign is touting what they describe as an “insurmountable” lead in the remaining votes to be counted, which are all mail ballots and mostly come from Democratic counties.
Things remain tight, with Biden leading in Wisconsin by 21,000 votes with 97% of precincts reporting, and a lead of 12,000 in Michigan with 90% reporting, but the mail ballots bode well for Biden.
Likewise, with 86% reporting in Nevada, Biden leads by 8,000. That state has said they won’t announce more results until around 11 AM CT tomorrow, but they’ve finished counting the election day vote, which skewed to Trump, and Democrats feel good about the remaining mail ballots.
The nail-biter of the group is Pennsylvania, where the count could take days in the best case scenario but could spill into next week, as the deadline for military and overseas ballots to arrive is next Tuesday. Trump has a substantial lead in Pennsylvania as of right now, with 76% of the vote reporting, but there is more than enough vote left to be counted that the Biden team feels bullish they’ll eventually be declared the winner there, as well.
The race also remains fluid in Georgia, where Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs still have substantial votes to count.
As things presently stand, Biden needs to sweep Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, where he leads, to reach 270 electoral votes exactly. If his campaign is able to hold onto Nevada, that total stretches to 276, and the potential addition of Pennsylvania would net him 296 electoral votes.
The tightness of the electoral college contest once again betrays the strength of Biden’s national performance. As of this writing, Biden leads the national popular vote by a commanding margin of over 2.5 million votes, essentially guaranteeing a second popular vote loss for Donald Trump.
We’ll have more updates later today and throughout the week. However long it takes, we’ve got your back.
Photo: Jessica Rinaldi/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
Joe brings over a decade of experience as a political operative and creative strategist to Texas Signal, where he serves as our Senior Advisor and does everything from writing a regular column, Musings, to mentoring our staff and freelancers. Joe was campaign manager for Lina Hidalgo's historic 2018 victory for Harris County Judge and is a passionate sneakerhead.