Weekly Polling roundup, October 12

by | Oct 12, 2020 | Politics, Polling

With just 22 days to the election, let’s take a look at the latest rounds of polling in the largest battleground state. 

It’s neck-and-neck between Biden and Trump

A poll released by Civiqs on Wednesday demonstrates just how close the presidential race is in Texas. The poll, which surveyed likely voters, found Trump and Biden dead even at 48-48. An EMC Research poll conducted a few days earlier found a similar result, with the candidates tied at 49 percent each. 

Other polls show Biden ahead, albeit by a narrow margin. Public Policy Polling found Biden ahead by one point, while Data for Progress shows Biden up by two. This is well within the margin of error, but it’s a far cry from previous presidential elections where the GOP could expect to win by double digits. 

MJ Hegar narrows the gap with Sen. John Cornyn 

In the Senate race, the polls show a single digit race between MJ Hegar and John Cornyn. Data for Progress found the former Air Force helicopter pilot behind by just three points, while Civiqs found Hegar only one point away from Cornyn. To put this in perspective, Cornyn had a double digit lead in March of this year. The three term Senator is in the race of his life. 

A tight race in the 23rd Congressional district. 

Air Force veteran Gina Ortiz Jones is ahead of her GOP opponent Tony Gonzales by only one point, according to a poll by Public Opinion Strategies. The district, which stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, had a razor-thin race in 2018, where Jones lost to GOP incumbent Will Hurd by roughly 1,000 votes. 2020 is looking like another close election for the 23rd. 

Conclusion 

Texas isn’t solid blue yet but it certainly isn’t solid red anymore. And while polling is an inexact science, keep in mind that the polls underestimated Democrats in Texas in the past four presidential election cycles, as well as the 2018 Senate race between Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke. So even a tight race in Texas should definitely make the GOP sweat. 

Photo: Niyazz/Getty Images

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William serves as a staff writer and editorial assistant at the Texas Signal, where he edits and posts articles and writes on topics ranging from national security to Louie Gohmert's plan to alter the orbit of planets. William has worked on Democratic campaigns in Texas, Colorado, and North Carolina and is an internet meme expert.

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