Weekly polling roundup

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With only 42 days left until election day, here’s another update on the latest polls coming out of the Lone Star State. 

A tight race between Biden and Trump

The polls show a very close race in Texas at the presidential level, and there is a serious possibility that Joe Biden will be the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1976. A CBS/Yougov poll released on Sunday shows Trump ahead by only 2 points, while a poll by the Tyson Group shows Biden up by 4. Both polls surveyed likely voters. Overall, the 538 polling average has Trump ahead by less than a point in Texas, a far cry from 2016 when he won by 9 points. And given that the polls underestimated Democrats by about 3 points in 2016 and 4 points in the 2018 senate election, Trump cannot take Texas’ 38 electoral votes for granted even if he is slightly ahead.  

The senate race tightens 

The race between GOP incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Democratic challenger MJ Hegar is beginning to mirror the presidential race. While Cornyn previously held a double digit lead earlier this month, the CBS/Yougov poll shows Hegar behind by 5 points and Tyson Group has her down by only 2 points. The latter poll shows Hegar within its 3 point margin of error. Cornyn, who has also suffered from low approval ratings throughout the campaign, is in the race of his life.

Good news in Texas’ 3rd congressional district 

An internal poll from the DCCC shows Democratic congressional candidate Lulu Seikaly only one point behind Rep. Van Taylor, 44-43. The same poll also found Biden ahead in the district. Texas’ 3rd congressional district, which covers suburban areas north of Dallas in Collin County, has been shifting toward the Democrats thanks to changing demographics.The daughter of Lebanese-American immigrants, Seikaly would be the first Arab-American from the Texas congressional delegation if she wins. 

Photo: SUZANNE CORDEIRO/AFP via Getty Images

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