Spotlight On Texas Special Elections

Early voting begins today, January 21, and runs through January 27, in two special elections with national implications.

On January 31, two candidates for seats in a state senate seat in Tarrant County and a congressional seat in Harris County, will be the next representatives for their district.

In Senate District 9, Tarrant County voters will choose a replacement for Kelly Hancock, a Republican who resigned after he was appointed as acting comptroller. In the December jungle primary, Democrat Taylor Rehmet of Fort Worth and Republican Leigh Wambsganss of Southlake advanced to a runoff. Rehmet nearly clinched the seat outright on Election Day. He was less than two percent shy of avoiding a runoff against Wamsbsganss. A third candidate, former Southlake Mayor John Huffman, trailed in the single digits.

Wambsganns is the chief communications officer for Patriot Mobile, a Christian telephone company, who is backed by President Trump and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Huffman, who previously ran for Congress, had the backing of the more moderate business leaders. A Republican rift wasn’t surprising. But a strong showing by Rehmet, the president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) Texas State Council, gave Democrats and Independents hope. The North Texas seat has long been a Republican stronghold. President Trump won the district by 56 percent in 2024.

But since Trump was elected to a second term, Democrats have overperformed or defeated Republicans in traditionally reliable districts, according to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which supports Democrats in state legislative races. From Iowa to Georgia, Democrats have flipped or held commanding leads over Republicans.

A Rehmet win would be a major upset for the GOP. But the real indicators are in the margins. If Rehmet loses by 10 percent or less, it could be a glimpse of what could come in the midterm elections in November.

The dynamics are very different for Congressional District 18 in Harris County. The seat has been vacant for almost a year following the death of Democratic Congressman Sylvester Turner. 

Like Senate District 9, the November primary in Harris County was a jungle primary. Sixteen candidates ran for the seat, and none got more than the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff. Facing off are two Democrats with plenty of name recognition: former Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards, a former city councilmember who has run for other offices.

And to make things even more complicated, in March, a whole new race will take place for the redrawn district that emerged after the mid-decade redistricting bill went into effect. Democrats will choose from four candidates: Edwards, Menefee, Gretchen Brown and Rep. Al Green, who represents the nearby Congressional District 9.

A large chunk of Green’s constituents were redrawn into the new CD-18, making Green a wild card. Even if Menefee or Edwards are elected to serve out the remaining term, Green could very well win the primary, runoff and coast to reelection in the fall. It’s all up for grabs. Even though the seat is a likely Democratic stronghold, Republican Ronald Dwayne Whitfield is also running.

Still, whoever wins the special election in Houston will further narrow Republicans’ control of Congress, which is currently 218-213. (Two safe Republican and a safe Democratic seat are also open.) That means Speaker Mike Johnson, who has seen rebellions by moderate and conservative members of his party, can only lose two votes on big priority bills as long as Democrats are united.

Texans like making history. And the results of the January 31 special elections will be historic.