The Shockingly Close Race For Texas Governor

The longest serving governor in the state’s history has handedly won his races since he was appointed to the state Supreme Court in 1996 by then Gov. George W. Bush (and later serving as Texas Attorney General). In 2014, he bested former State Sen. Wendy Davis, easily defeated his 2018 challenger former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (in a good year for her party), and trounced former Congressman Beto O’Rourke in 2022.

But what’s remarkable is that, even as Texas is reliably red, polls show Abbott and Hinojosa neck and neck. That’s quite remarkable given Hinojosa early lack of name recognition, compared to O’Rourke and even Davis.

Hinojosa’s only passed around a dozen laws since she was elected in 2016 to a reliably Democratic House seat. But she uses her perch in other ways, including being one the most vocal supporters of public education in the state. In her time in the legislature, she has pushed for more public school funding while decrying school vouchers, which allocate public funds to send children to private schools.

There are a few national and statewide factors at play.

First: the party in charge of the White House typically takes a ballot box beating during the midterms. With President Donald Trump polling in the low 30s and Republicans also controlling the House and Senate, the winds are against the party in power. (Something Ken Paxton apparently also believes.)

While Hinojosa has little name visibility, she’s boosted by generic Democratic enthusiasm as well as Senate nominee and State Rep. James Talarico, who faces Attorney General Ken Paxton. And the electorate in Texas is frustrated, to put it mildly. Many Texans are opposed to school vouchers, and especially data centers. The data center hatred has particularly been a fine line for Abbott to walk.

Abbott still has a massive financial advantage. He started his campaign with over $100 million. But Hinojosa reported a surge in contributions totaling $13 million in the past reporting quarter. Her campaign also received over $1.2 million from Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker.

Abbott recently went on defense, telling CBS News "Polls don't win elections, and polls are often wrong. What I'm confident about is exactly where my campaign stands and the outcome. I'm going to win this race. I've got a broader goal, and that's to keep Texas, Texas."

Also running for governor is perennial candidate, Libertarian Pat Dixon.

Early voting begins in Texas on Monday, October 19. Election Day is November 3.