The Texas Senate Showdown

With early voting starting in just a few weeks, all eyes are focused on the primary election for the lone star state. And one race in particular has garnered national interest. 

The Texas Senate race got off to an explosive start when Attorney General Ken Paxton announced he would be challenging incumbent Republican John Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002. Paxton entered the race by billing himself as the true Trump-aligned Republican candidate, and has repeatedly criticized Cornyn for being a “RINO” (Republican in name only).

In recent years, Paxton and Cornyn seemed to have an acrimonious relationship. As Paxton weathered many legal woes, which culminated in an impeachment trial in the Texas House and Senate, Cornyn was forthright in discussing the allegations of bribery and abuse of office from the AG. During Paxton’s re-election bid four years ago, Cornyn even referred to his scandals as “an embarrassment” for the state of Texas.

Paxton has never admitted to any wrongdoing as the chief law enforcement officer in Texas. After his acquittal in the Senate trial, he called the entire process a “sham.”

Complicating matters even further for Cornyn is another Republican challenging him in the primary: Congressman Wesley Hunt. The Houston lawmaker entered the race defiantly, dismissing worries from some GOP leaders that his presence in the field would only help Paxton. Hunt, a former army veteran, entered Congress in 2023. Many of the photos on his candidate website show him with President Trump as an “American First Fighter.”

The trio of Republican candidates are all leaning on their proximity to President Trump, with each calling themselves the true MAGA candidate. But, Trump has so far stayed out of the race. The same goes for Ted Cruz, who recently told Semafor that all three candidates “are friends of mine.” 

In Texas, if no candidate reaches over fifty percent, then the top two candidates enter a runoff. The latest polling in the Republican primary shows Paxton and Cornyn virtually tied with 27 and 26 percent, respectively.

On the Democratic side of the primary, the race likely comes down to Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico. When Talarico entered the primary, he leaned on his background as a middle school teacher; his faith; and a pledge to fight the billionaire class as a means of bringing people together. When Talarico came into the race, previous candidate and congressman Colin Allred was still running. On the eve of the filing deadline, Allred decided to drop off out of the Senate race (and is now running in a redrawn congressional district) as Crockett entered.

Crockett has had a rather meteoric rise in Texas politics over the last five years. She came into the Texas State House in 2021 as an insurgent candidate that had been heavily involved in the Black Lives Matter movement in North Texas. When longtime member of congress Eddie Bernice Johnson decided she would not run for reelection in 2023, Crockett earned her endorsement as her political successor. As a member of Congress, Crockett has received national attention for her sharp and acerbic dialogue. She had a particularly viral moment on the House floor with Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. She has also been a frequent target of President Trump, who frequently calls her a “low IQ person.” In her Senate launch video, Crockett used several soundbites from Trump disparaging her.

As candidates, Crockett and Talarico are similar in that they are both positioning themselves as generational and energizing figures. The same poll that showed Cornyn and Paxton even in the Republican primary, indicates that Talarico has a nine-point lead over Crockett on the Democratic side.

The battle between Crockett and Talarico made some unexpected headlines a few weeks ago thanks to the pop culture podcast Las Culturistas. One of the co-hosts, Matt Rogers, went on a political rant and urged listeners not to give money to Crockett, implying her Senate bid was a lost cause. The clip caused quite a fury, with many Texans apoplectic over the comments by someone who does not live in the lone star state. Rogers (and his co-host Bowen Yang) both issued apologies online. “I’m a very progressive person who cares deeply about winning these elections, but my phrasing was not right,” said Rogers in an Instagram post. 

An internal poll from Crockett shows her with an 11-point edge against Talarico. Crockett’s team has said they are investing in turning out the 2.2 million voters of color who are registered in the state but did not vote in the 2024 presidential election.

Talarico and Crockett will appear together for their first (and perhaps only) debate at the Texas AFL-CIO’s convention on January 24. In October, Hunt called for a debate against Paxton and Cornyn, but neither side committed.

Early voting begins in Texas on Tuesday, February 17 and goes until Friday, February 27. The primary election day is Tuesday, March 3.

 Editor’s disclosure: Texas Signal Board Chair Rebecca Marques was hired to work for Crockett’s campaign.