What Happens If Texas Experiences Another Disaster?

Over the last few days, nearly every part of Texas has been bombarded by spring storms. That’s not surprising if one remembers the old adage: if you don’t like the weather in Texas, wait five minutes. The damage was minimal, just a passing April shower. But, with every severe weather forecast, there’s a looming uncertainty: can or will the damage get fixed? Given the state of FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management System), that answer isn’t a given.

For many years, Texas has been one of the most disaster-prone and FEMA-dependent states in the nation. Since 2015, Texas has received an average of $1.4 billion per year in disaster aid. And that relief has spanned a myriad of calamities: hurricanes, flooding, and winter storms. 

Responding to and managing disasters is the very mission of FEMA, but the agency that thousands of Texans have relied on in the past is not the agency of today. The number of FEMA employees has dropped by the thousands, with plans to cut even more. That would include employees at the Denton-based Region VI FEMA office. 

The erosion of FEMA has already impacted Texas. Last year, Texas endured one of its deadliest disasters in decades during the July Hill country floods. The flooding killed at least 135 people, including several young children at Camp Mystic. The damage exceeded over 20 billion.

In the aftermath of the flooding, some key errors by FEMA became readily apparent. FEMA’s acting director was unreachable for nearly a whole day as the flooding worsened, which delayed search and rescue efforts. Call centers were also not taking emergency calls because DHS had failed to approve a vendor contract. 

As he entered his second term, Donald Trump promised extensive cuts and changes to the federal workforce. FEMA is no exception. Trump has stated numerous times that FEMA should be eliminated ,with disaster responses moving to the state level.

Over the last 11 months, FEMA has had five administrators. One of those, Cameron Hamilton, was fired the day after he told Congress that the agency should not be terminated. The current Acting Director of FEMA is Karen Evans, a longtime cybersecurity official with no background in disaster relief. 

The Trump Administration recently appointed Gregg Phillips to run FEMA’S Office of Response and Recovery, a top operational role that oversees disaster responses. Phillips also has no background in disaster recovery, but he has spent many years trafficking conspiracies, including that the 2020 election was stolen. He has also claimed to have experiences with teleportation, at one time saying he traveled fifty miles to a Waffle House in Rome, Georgia. 

Outright eliminating FEMA and replacing it with state-run programs may be the ultimate goal of the Trump administration, but for now they have proposed three main pillars for FEMA: significant staff reduction, changing the criteria for federal disaster aid, and ending damage costs to determine federal assistance. Disaster experts who spoke with NPR about those proposals expressed alarm. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has also reiterated that moving disaster aid to the state-level would be costly and ineffective. 

The Urban Institute surveyed major disasters since 2008, to determine what would no longer receive federal aid under these new FEMA perimeters. According to their calculations, 71 percent of disasters would have been ineligible for federal aid.

It’s been less than a year since those deadly and destructive floods in the Hill Country. There are still a few green ribbons hung around trees in Texas, meant to symbolize and memorialize the victims. The physical and emotional devastation is omnipresent, especially for those who endured the disaster. Just 1 in 5 applicants for flood relief in Kerr County has been approved by FEMA. Perhaps not a surprise for an agency hollowed out.

In the days after the floods, Texas Governor Greg Abbott praised the response from the Trump administration as the President and First Lady came to Kerrville. When he was asked about any potential missteps, Trump blasted the question. “Everyone did an incredible job under the circumstances.” The Texas governor echoed those views. Abbott also sits on the FEMA Review Council, the formal government task force appointed to steer FEMA into its new future.

Recently, the Department  of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University released their 2026 hurricane predictions. Because of El Nino, there will likely be fewer major hurricanes than prior years. But, there’s still a 20 percent chance of a storm forming over the Gulf Coast.

Texas has been no stranger to major disasters. Last year, there were the Hill Country floods. Before that there was Winter Storm Uri, and Hurricane Harvey. Events so powerful that any Texan who went through it, will likely not forget it. If another disaster sets Texas in its target, what happens next remains unclear.