A Fight For The Next Texas Legislature

As Election Day approaches, many political pundits have been laser focused on the larger statewide races on the Texas ballot, namely Senate and Governor. However, the political future of the state also rests on several local races that could shift the balance of both the Texas State House and Senate.

Texas is just one of a handful of states that operates on a biannual legislative cycle. Every two years, the Texas House and Senate convene for a marathon 140-day session.

For over 20 years, Texas has been a fully Republican-controlled state through the governor’s mansion, the Senate, and House. And in the last few legislative sessions, Texas Republicans have pushed a number of conservative demands including a near-total abortion ban, permitless gun carry, and a school voucher bill (to just name a few).

At the recent Texas GOP Convention, delegates affirmed a slew of positions that could telegraph the 2027 legislative calendar if Republicans retain control of both chambers. They include further restrictions on care for trans Texans, not recognizing gay marriages, a ban on IVF, and an end to no-fault divorce.

Many of those potential new laws could be thwarted if Democrats make a dent in both the Texas House and Senate. In 2018, during a landmark year for Democrats across the country, Texas Democrats flipped 12 seats in the Texas House and ended the supermajority Republicans had in the Texas Senate.

Texas Democrats are hoping for some similar magic in 2026. According to the Texas Tribune, there are ten “hot” races for the Texas House that could flip from Republican to Democrat control. In the state senate, Democrats are playing defense in SD-19 and SD-21 with incumbents Roland Gutierriez and Judith Zaffirini. They are also looking to hold a district that earlier this year held a special election in Tarrant County with union leader Taylor Rehmet.

Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss in the Senate District runoff by more than 14 percentage points. He became the first Democrat to represent the Tarrant County district since the 1980’s, and he has a rematch with Wambsganss next week.

Tarrant County will be a critical bellwether for both Republicans and Democrats on Election Day. The Tribune has marked the race for HD-94 between Republican Cheryl Bean and Democrat Katie O’Brien Duzan as “hot.” They also have two other races as “warm.” Those include the race for HD-97 between Republican incumbent John McQueeney and Beth Llewellyn McLaughlin and the matchup in HD-97 between Republican Ellen Fleischmann and Democrat Ebony Turner.

On a press call, representatives with the House Democratic Campaign Committee expressed cautious optimism about their outlooks for making big gains in the Texas House. On the call focused on North Texas, many noted the importance of Tarrant County.

Junior Ezeonu (running uncontested in HD-101), stressed the need to turn out as many voters as possible during the early vote season. Tarrant County will be down 92 polling locations on Election Day after a party-line vote in the commissioner’s court. According to Ezeonu, as of Tuesday, October 27, Democratic primary voters were outpacing Republican primary voters in Tarrant County by 21,000.

Early voting in Texas runs until Friday, October 30th. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3rd.